Interesting question. Of course all answers have to be speculative,but we can draw some conclusions as to probabilities from history and even present times.
Food has always been a challenge that any society has had to meet in order to continue,some did well and some well.....didn't.
China has a bunch of people ,china has always had a bunch of people,and it would seem they have for the most part managed to feed themselves from thier own farming,perhaps not enough at times,but enough to keep going, and all I might add from mainly small family operations.
Food is now considered a commodity,the products used to make it are considered commodities,all in a manner that we have never seen before.
Prior to WWII most agriculture worldwide was small and local and self supporting,there were exceptions but as a rule most were ,certainly not Cargill or the like.
Of course after the war a lot of big companies that made bombs out of nitrites and ammonia and such suddenly lost their market,not much use for bombs when theres no war,and they knew these chemicals would grow crops pretty well so many of them got into the fertilizer business.
Farms grew expodentially and massive farms owned by corporations became the way of life,USDA pushed the idea of get big or get out and we all know the story as farming became more and more centeralized and govt influenced,
today as I said food and food related products that have any oil in them are going through the roof with no end in sight,our food has now become tied to the price/demand of oil. Of course weather and politics affect food too,but trade policys are perhaps the toughest on food prices and supplies simply because food is as I say a commodity,(and a weapon)one that is speculated on and traded on just as oil is done.
This creates part of the present day situation and much will depend on what people who buy food decide to do and whom they decide to buy from,will they buy local/regional or still demand stuff out of season from the third world?
I suspect that the days of fairly inexpensive food are over, at least for the time being, unless someone invents a fuel source that works and is inexpensive and the "powers that be" dont shoot them and bury it,and it will work for fertilizer too, then we will see food cost continue to rise along with those other commodities such as oil.
With china and the rest of the world pulling more resources into their countries and peoples standard of living,or at least their expectations rising,the foodstuffs that are traded as commodities will increase in price and decrease in supply and people will have to pay the price,or starve.
Of course at least some of the people can raise some of their own food at least part of the time, this will help but the bulk of peole are not very independent of the system, and many have little knowledge or resourses to do that,however those who can, should .
We need to work as a people to rebuild Americas farm base,that means buying American again,but more than that it means supporting farmers especially those near where you are, I believe also working to find any way however small to supply yourself some of what you eat, its something all of us need to work at .
I dont really know what will happen as time passes,but I would want to err on the side of caution when it comes to food on my plate, I would just like to see folks be a bit more independent and able to weather whatever happens, and not have to send the kids to bed hungry because situations they cant control slam down on them,we know that govt will not be there to help if food gets scarce,and if they are they will want a price,perhaps your blind alliegence to whatever they say,in exchange for a piece of bread,not a good thing. Just my thoughts on the subject, thanks!